Ranking The 15 Golfers Most Likely To Win The 2025 U.S. Open At Oakmont

The 2025 U.S. Open Championship at Oakmont Country Club is expected to be the toughest test of golf the world’s best face this year, and there are early reports that this could be the most challenging U.S. Open in the past 20 years.

For a golfer to win the 2025 U.S. Open their game will need to be uniquely suited to hit the ball long, accurately, and when they falter they must be able to make it safely out of the rough and back into contention. Here, we rank the 15 golfers who are most likely to win the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club based on their skill sets.

An average golfer might easily shoot over 200 at Oakmont Country Club. This grueling test of golf has a 5-inch rough that swallows up balls like a Venus fly trap. The fairways and greens are so fast the ball rolls like grass. A normal ‘tap in’ putt could run 25 feet past the hole and off the green. Oakmont Country Club is also a very long course with the longest par-5 in Championship golf history and a 300-yard par-3.

For a golfer to win it all this week, they will need to launch the ball but do so accurately and ensure they keep it in the fairway. They must be able to scramble and overcome moments the rough swallows up the ball or they find themselves in one of Oakmont’s treacherous bunkers. These are the 15 golfers we believe are most likely to win the 2025 U.S. Open based on each of their unique skill sets.

15. Hideki Matsuyama

Hideki Matsuyama is a popular sleeper pick to win the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club for a handful of reasons. Firstly, he has already won on the PGA Tour this year at the season opening The Sentry at Kapalua. Since that win, Hideki hasn’t had a top 10 and he has missed 3 cuts including at the PGA Championship but there are some very compelling reasons to back Hideki this week.

Matsuyama ranks 17th in Strokes Gained, 3rd in Scrambling and Sand Save %, and he averages over 300 yards in driving while hitting 55.26% of fairways. Let’s not discount the fact that he won the 2021 Masters and finished t2 at the 2017 U.S. Open, so he knows how to put himself in contention on Sunday.

14. Ryan Fox

New Zealand’s Ryan Fox is 1 of 5 players on the PGA Tour with multiple wins this season, including last week at the RBC Canadian Open where he overcame a lengthy sudden death playoff. So, he’s hot right now but has a golfer ever won the U.S. Open after winning the week before? No.

However, 5 golfers have won the PGA after winning the week before and another 5 won the Masters after winning the week before so it is not unheard of. Currently, Ryan Fox ranks 20th in strokes gained, 51st in Driving Distance, but a shaky 129th in Driving Accuracy. Fox does rank 31st in Scoring and 10th in distance to the hole upon approach from outside of 200 yards so hitting long shots into the greens this week could prove to be the reason he prevails.

13. Joaquin Niemann

Joaquin Niemann has been the hottest golfer on the LIV Golf Tour this year. He sits atop the season standings with a massive points lead over Bryson (2) and Jon Rahm (3), and Niemann has 4 wins on the LIV Golf Tour this season so far. He should, in theory, be one of the top 3 betting favorites to win the U.S. Open but then there’s theoretical success and Niemann’s historical results and one is not like the other.

Joaco had 2 wins during his time on the PGA Tour but he just hasn’t been able to rise to the challenge in Major Championships. His best finishes are t16 at The Masters (2013), t8 at the PGA Championship (2025), t23 at the U.S. Open (2020), and t53 at the Open Championship (2022). Joaquin’s top 10 at the PGA Championship suggests he is ready to break through but it is hard to trust him when past results don’t agree with reality.

12. Rory McIlroy

Putting Rory McIlroy outside of the top 10 feels criminal to me but I simply have to after the last week Rory had. The 2025 Masters, Players, and AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am winner missed the cut last week at the RBC Canadian Open after hitting +9 over Thursday/Friday, and then his words afterward were concerning as he all but admitted his hunger to win isn’t there right now after finally overcoming his demons and winning The Masters.

That said, Rory and Scottie are the only two 3-time winners on the PGA Tour this season, Rory has already won a Major Championship this year, he ranks 3rd in Strokes Gained, 2nd in SG Off The Tee, 3rd in Driving Distance, 8th in Scoring Average, and 11th in SG Putting. All the tools are there and Rory rises to the occasion at golf’s greatest championships.

11. Sam Burns

Sam Burns is a sneaky good pick this week, IMHO, due to the fact that he ranks 1st on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained Putting. He’s 24th in SG overall, 51st in Driving Distance, 84th in Driving Accuracy, 8th in Sand Save %, and he is coming off a playoff loss last week to Ryan Fox at the RBC Canadian Open so Burns’ game is red hot at the moment.

10. Tommy Fleetwood

Could the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont Country Club be the time that Tommy Fleetwood finally breaks through and wins his first of golf’s Major Championships? I’d love to see it happen. He has four top 10s so far this season, and recently finished t16 at The Memorial and t4 at the Charles Schwab Challenge. In order to win at Oakmont CC, Tommy will need to overcome some demons.

Fleetwood finished in 2nd at the 2018 U.S. Open and the 2019 Open Championship. Tommy also has top 5’s with a t3 at the 2024 Masters and 2022 PGA Championship, so he is constantly in the mix at majors. Ranking 7th in Strokes Gained overall, Fleetwood is a sneaky good pick this week. He ranks 34th on the tour in Driving Accuracy and whoever wins this week will need to keep it in the fairways.

9. Keegan Bradley

39-year-old Keegan Bradley has over $50.7 million in career earnings on the PGA Tour and he won the 2011 PGA Championship so he knows what it takes to win a major. Keegan’s best finish at the U.S. Open was a t4 in 2014 but his game has been alive lately. Bradley ranks 15th overall in Strokes Gained, 27th in SG Off The Tee, 47th in Driving Accuracy, and 19th in Total Driving. The 2025 U.S. Open winner will need to be a fantastic driver of the ball and Keegan Bradley fits that bill.

8. Shane Lowry

Shane Lowry, the 2019 Open Championship winner, finished t2 at the 2016 U.S. Open which was the last time it was held at Oakmont Country Club.

Lowry has 4 top 10s on the Tour this season and finished t13 at -13 last week in Canada. But looking at Shane’s game, he fits the bill of a player that will win this week. Lowry ranks 5th overall in Strokes Gained on the PGA Tour, 2nd in SG Approach to Green, and 28th in Driving Accuracy. Shane Lowry also ranks #1 overall on the PGA Tour this season in proximity to the hole at 33’7″. Also, he’s due.

7. Justin Thomas

Justin Thomas is a 2x Major Championship winner after taking down the PGA in 2017 and 2022. His best U.S. Open result came in 2020 with a t8 but JT has already been in the winning column this season after beating Andrew Novak in a playoff at the RBC Heritage back in April.

Justin missed the cut at the PGA which doesn’t bode well for his game but he bounced back with a t31 at the Memorial. He currently ranks 4th overall in Strokes Gained on the PGA Tour this season, 8th in SG Approach to Green, and he ranks 1st in Putting Avg. If his putter gets hot at Oakmont this could be JT’s week.

6. Patrick Cantlay

Patrick Cantlay finished t3 at the 2024 U.S. Open and has top 10s in the other 3 majors in his career, and will be seeking to break through to get his first career Major Championship this week.

With three top 5s this season, Cantlay ranks 9th in Strokes Gained, 47th in Total Driving, 80th in Driving Accuracy, 3rd in Greens In Regulation, and his 3.95 scoring average on par-4’s is 5th best on the PGA Tour and bodes really well for a course that is chock full of par-4s.

5. Jon Rahm

Former world #1 Jon Rahm has the game to win the U.S. Open this week and he will undoubtedly be in the mix come Sunday. Rahm is 21-for-21 at finishing in the top 10 on the PGA Tour but in recent Majors Rahm finished t8 at the PGA Championship and t14 at The Masters.

The Spaniard bombs the ball then stiffs it close. Rahm won the 2021 U.S. Open, also on Father’s Day, and I’ve yet to see any compelling argument as to why Jon Rahm won’t finish inside the top 5 this week at Oakmont let alone win it all.

4. Collin Morikawa

Collin Morikawa could be top 2 on this list if it wasn’t for the players ahead of him being in better form in recent days but Morikawa’s game is nearly perfectly suited for Oakmont Country Club and winning the 2025 U.S. Open Championship.

Collin finished in solo 2nd at The Sentry and the Arnold Palmer, t14 at The Masters and t50 at the PGA. But Oakmont sets up great for Collin’s game. He ranks 8th overall in Strokes Gained, 6th in SG Approach to Green, 52nd in Total Driving, 51st in Putting, and most importantly, Collin Morikawa ranks 2nd overall on the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy right now. He keeps the ball in the fairway. If that stays true this week he will put himself in contention to win the U.S. Open on Sunday.

3. Xander Schauffele

The 2024 PGA and Open Championship golfer picked the worst possible time to win 2 majors in one season because we would be talking about him as the best golfer in the world right now if it wasn’t for Scottie and Rory…

Xander finished t8 at The Masters, t28 at the PGA Championship, but he ranks 27th in Driving Distance and the long holes at Oakmont will favor him for that reason. He has the 6th best odds to win it all this week according to most sportsbooks.

2. Bryson DeChambeau

Is there any reason other than ‘Scottie Scheffler exists’ that Bryson DeChambeau won’t win the 2025 U.S. Open at Oakmont? Bryson is the 2nd betting favorite behind Scheffler and as one of the longest hitters the game has ever seen, DeChambeau has the distance to tear Oakmont apart in a way that shorter hitters could never imagine.

He is a 2x U.S. Open champion and more importantly, the reigning U.S. Open champion. Bryson THRIVES on competition amongst the best golfers in the world and lives for the majors, which makes his LIV choice all the more puzzling, but it is what it is. If Scottie stumbles at all this week then it is Bryson’s tournament to lose.

1. Scottie Scheffler

The #1 ranked golfer in the world, already with 3 wins on the PGA Tour this season, the golf world has not seen anyone play golf this (statistically) good since Tiger Woods in the prime of his career.

Scottie has already won one Major this year at the PGA and has wins in the CJ Cup Byron Nelson and most recently at The Memorial. His odds to win are over 2x better than any other competitor in the field, but let’s talk about Scottie’s stats on the course… Scheffler ranks #1 in Strokes Gained, SG Off The Tee, SG Approach To Tee, Scoring Average, and Par-4 Scoring Average. He ranks #2 in Scrambling and Proximity. Scottie is 11th in Total Driving, 72nd in Driving Distance, 30th in Driving Accuracy, 6th in GIR %, and 5th in Scrambling From The Rough.

Anything can happen in golf, especially at Oakmont, with a huge score on the scorecard always lurking one mental mistake away. But Scottie Scheffler’s ability to shake off a bogey/double and go birdie the next hole is unmatched.

This is Scottie’s tournament to lose which would be a lot of pressure for most golfers but he’s the calmest guy on the course. Nothing rattles him. Calling it now, Scottie wins at even par with 2nd place finishing at +5 or worse.